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support to those in need.
However, experts expect things to get better as you look further into the future.
a critical variable: the timing of the vaccine.
“We now expect that at least one vaccine will be approved by the end of 2020 and will be widely distributed by the end of 2021Q2,” Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs wrote on Sunday. “We have incorporated this timeline as our baseline forecast, and now assume consumer services spending accelerates in the first half of 2021 as consumers resume activities that would previously have exposed them to Covid-19 risk.”
key to giving consumers the confidence to go back out there and spend. And that spending is key to getting businesses growing again, which in turn leads to more employment.
Goldman’s increased optimism about the vaccine led the firm to increase its 2021 GDP growth forecast to +6.2% (from +5.6%) and lower its 2021 year-end unemployment rate forecast to 6.5% (from 7.0%).
Q2 earnings season has been beating expectations, leading analysts everywhere to raise their estimates.
Goldman isn’t alone in getting more optimistic about 2021 market conditions.
FactSet’s John Butters wrote on Friday. “Since June 30, the CY 2021 bottom- up EPS estimate has increased by 1.4% (to $165.68 from $163.38).”” data-reactid=”44″>“During the first six months of the year, the CY 2021 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median 2021 EPS estimates for all the companies in the index) declined by 16.9% (to $163.38 from $196.70),” FactSet’s John Butters wrote on Friday. “Since June 30, the CY 2021 bottom- up EPS estimate has increased by 1.4% (to $165.68 from $163.38).”
consumers continue to get aid until public health conditions are more normalized.
“Despite these forecast upgrades, the near-term downside risks have risen due to Congress’s failure to pass a Phase 4 fiscal package,” Briggs added. “We still expect a package worth at least $1.5 trillion to become law by the end of August, but the risk of no further legislative action has increased and could pose a threat to the budding recovery.”
executive orders that would provide more coronavirus economic relief, but it’s unclear what the measures mean since Congress has federal spending power.
@SamRo” data-reactid=”48″>By Sam Ro, managing editor. Follow him at @SamRo
What to watch today
10:00 a.m. ET: JOLTS job openings, June (5.3 million expected, 5.387 million in May)
6:30 a.m. ET: Duke Energy Corp (DUK) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.03 per share on revenue of $5.7 billion
6:30 a.m. ET: SeaWorld (SEAS) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 92 cents per share on revenue of $66.58 million
7:00 a.m. ET: Marriott International (MAR) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 42 cents per share on revenue of $1.63 billion
8:05 a.m. ET: Royal Caribbean (RCL) is expected to report an adjusted loss of $4.88 per share on revenue of $129.18 million
4:05 p.m. ET: Novavax (NVAX) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 51 cents per share on revenue of $49.5 million
4:10 p.m. ET: IAC/InteractiveCorp (IAC) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 18 cents per share on revenue of $1.23 billion
4:15 p.m. ET: J2Global (JCOM) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.45 per share on revenue of $315.82 million
4:15 p.m. ET: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is expected to report an adjusted loss of $1.68 per share on revenue of $3.57 billion
After market close: ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 2 cents per share on revenue of $105.5 million
Top News
European opens higher after mixed session in Asia [Yahoo Finance UK]
Oil prices rise on hope worst is over for demand [Yahoo Finance UK]
Twitter wades into bidding war for TikTok’s US arm [Reuters]
Tencent shares lose $66 billion in 2-day rout on WeChat ban [Bloomberg]
Starbucks CEO: Customers seek a haven of the ‘safe, familiar, and convenient’ during coronavirus
Space industry is moving to ‘leadership by seasoned execs’: Space Capital partner
Executive order extends U.S. federally-held student loan interest freeze until end of 2020
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