NYSE:BDX) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!” data-reactid=”28″>Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Becton, Dickinson and Company (NYSE:BDX) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.” data-reactid=”29″>Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company’s value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
View our latest analysis for Becton Dickinson ” data-reactid=”30″>View our latest analysis for Becton Dickinson
The model
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$3.63b | US$3.96b | US$4.15b | US$4.28b | US$4.39b | US$4.50b | US$4.61b | US$4.72b | US$4.83b | US$4.95b |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x3 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 2.68% | Est @ 2.54% | Est @ 2.45% | Est @ 2.38% | Est @ 2.33% | Est @ 2.3% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.4% | US$3.3k | US$3.4k | US$3.3k | US$3.1k | US$2.9k | US$2.8k | US$2.6k | US$2.5k | US$2.3k | US$2.2k |
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 8.4%.
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$65b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$256, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Becton Dickinson as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 8.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.024. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Becton Dickinson, we’ve compiled three further elements you should further research:
- Risks: Be aware that Becton Dickinson is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant…
- Future Earnings: How does BDX’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
search here.” data-reactid=”70″>PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected].” data-reactid=”71″>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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