Jobless claims preview: Another 1.4 million Americans likely filed new unemployment claims last week
The number of new unemployment insurance claims is expected to have improved marginally last week, as the coronavirus pandemic continues to weigh on the pace of recovery in the labor market.
The Labor Department’s weekly report on initial jobless claims is due for release Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main results expected from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
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Initial jobless claims, week ended Aug. 1: 1.4 million expected, vs. 1.434 million during the prior week
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Continuing claims, week ended July 25: 16.9 million expected, vs. 17.018 million during the prior week
new jobless claims in last week’s report rose for a second straight week, after what had been 15 consecutive weeks of declines previously.
If new initial jobless claims comes in as expected on Thursday, it will represent the twentieth straight week that new claims topped 1 million, as the pandemic forced furloughs and layoffs across the country. Since the week ended March 20, more than 54 million individuals filed new unemployment insurance claims.
“Initial claims have remained stubbornly high and the number of individuals receiving unemployment insurance has barely declined from its peak,” Credit Suisse economist James Sweeney wrote in a note last Friday.
Meanwhile, continuing unemployment insurance claims, which capture the number of individuals still receiving benefits, are expected to have fallen to just under 17 million during the week ended July 25. Continuing claims, reported on a one-week lag, peaked at nearly 25 million in mid-May, and remain more than double the pre-pandemic peak of 6.6 million in mid-2009.
The latest report for new weekly unemployment insurance claims covers the final week during which Americans were eligible for enhanced federal unemployment benefits as part of Congress’s original Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act passed in March. The previous $600 per week in augmented federal unemployment insurance expired at the end of July, though many workers received their last payment from the program during the prior week.
after the second quarter’s historic 32.9% annualized decline in GDP – could be jeopardized in absence of further support for individuals.
showed private payrolls rose by a meager 167,000 in July. Consensus economists had expected private employers added back 1.2 million payrolls, after an upwardly revised 4.3 million additions in June. JPMorgan economist Daniel Silver said the result “reinforces our view that the economy has lost momentum in recent weeks following a period of strong growth.”” data-reactid=”42″>Other recent labor market data also reflected the slowing recovery as coronavirus cases flared in some parts of the country in June and July. On Wednesday, the closely watched ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls rose by a meager 167,000 in July. Consensus economists had expected private employers added back 1.2 million payrolls, after an upwardly revised 4.3 million additions in June. JPMorgan economist Daniel Silver said the result “reinforces our view that the economy has lost momentum in recent weeks following a period of strong growth.”
The print boded negatively for the Labor Department’s July jobs report, set for release Friday. However, the report has historically been an imprecise indicator of the “official” government-issued employment report. ADP’s initial print for May and June payroll additions each ultimately undershot the data reflected in the Labor Department’s monthly reports.
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Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck” data-reactid=”46″>Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck
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