TSE:BCE) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.” data-reactid=”28″>How far off is BCE Inc. (TSE:BCE) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.” data-reactid=”29″>We generally believe that a company’s value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
See our latest analysis for BCE ” data-reactid=”30″> See our latest analysis for BCE
Crunching the numbers
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
| Levered FCF (CA$, Millions) | CA$3.94b | CA$4.34b | CA$4.35b | CA$4.39b | CA$4.43b | CA$4.49b | CA$4.55b | CA$4.61b | CA$4.68b | CA$4.75b |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x10 | Analyst x3 | Est @ 0.37% | Est @ 0.76% | Est @ 1.03% | Est @ 1.22% | Est @ 1.35% | Est @ 1.44% | Est @ 1.51% | Est @ 1.55% |
| Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.5% | CA$3.7k | CA$3.8k | CA$3.6k | CA$3.4k | CA$3.2k | CA$3.1k | CA$2.9k | CA$2.8k | CA$2.7k | CA$2.5k |
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 6.5%.
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CA$86b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$55.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 41% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Important assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at BCE as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 6.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won’t be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you’d apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company’s valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For BCE, we’ve put together three fundamental factors you should consider:
- Risks: For example, we’ve discovered 2 warning signs for BCE (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does BCE’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
search here.” data-reactid=”70″>PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Canadian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected].” data-reactid=”71″>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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