It may be premature to start bargain shopping for stocks.
According to Wall Street forecaster James Bianco, the market is likely in the throes of a 10% to 15% downturn.
“We made a lower low on Friday. We’ve made a lower low today. So, this market is showing weakness after the sell-off — something we haven’t seen since March,” the Bianco Research president told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday. “That’s why I think it’s a little bit early to maybe jump into the market.”
Bianco cites questions “frenzy” of speculative activity in the options market, overbought conditions and uncertainty over the fate of a second virus air package as catalysts for the sell-off.
“We’re in September. The stimulus seems to be questionable [and] who knows if we’re going to get bailouts,” he said. “This is an overvalued market that has a lot of excess.”
The Nasdaq is officially in correction territory. It’s off 10% from its record high hit last Wednesday. Bianco sees little relief in sight for the tech-heavy index — as well as for the broader markets. He believes there’s a good chance the market highs are in for the year.
But Bianco, who turned bullish on stocks in late Spring, isn’t ready to become a full-blown bear for one reason: The Federal Reserve.
“They can throw another kitchen sink at this market. That’s why I am only looking for a correction, and then we’ll see what kind of response we get out of the Fed,” he said. “So, I am in the correction camp”
For now, he thinks it’s prudent to wait out the trouble.
“Go back to March, if you were four or five days early, you would have lost another 15% of your money before the market rallied back, and then it rallied back to your beak-even point,” Bianco said. “So, you’d be better off just letting the process unfold over time.”
