Apple’s first-day preorders for iPhone 12 surpassed the iPhone 11, top analyst says

Apple sold more iPhone 12 models in the first 24 hours of preorders last week than iPhone 11 models sold in the same period last year, according to top Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International securities.

In a research note Monday, Kuo reported that Apple sold up to 2 million iPhone 12 units in the first 24 hours, up from 800,000 units of the iPhone 11. But for the full weekend of preorders, which ended Sunday, Kuo predicted Apple would sell up to 9 million iPhone 12 units, down from the iPhone 11’s 12 million for the same period. The iPhone 12 Pro sold better than expected thanks to strong demand in China, Kuo said.

Kuo has an excellent track record predicting future Apple products and sales, so his reports carry extra weight, especially since Apple stopped reporting unit sales for the iPhone two years ago. Apple stopped reporting first-weekend sales of new iPhone models several years ago.

Many Apple analysts are predicting a “super cycle” of iPhone sales for Apple’s fiscal 2021, which began in October, thanks to a larger-than-normal customer base due for an upgrade and the addition of 5G cellular connections.

Here are some more highlights from Kuo’s report:

• The iPhone 11 price cut to $599 caused weaker preorder demand for the iPhone 12.
• The iPhone 12 Pro, which has better cameras than the base model, sold better than expected in the first wave of preorders, thanks to 5G’s broad availability in China. Kuo said China represented 35% to 45% of iPhone Pro demand.
• Demand for the iPhone 12 Mini (a smaller version of the iPhone 12) and iPhone 12 Pro Max (a larger version of the iPhone 12 Pro), which go on sale next month, will likely be weaker than the 12 and 12 Pro.
• The iPhone 12 Mini probably won’t sell as well in China because of the smaller screen and the lack of support for two SIM cards, which lets users switch between carriers on the same device, a popular feature in Asia.
• Shipping times for most models have slipped to five to 10 days, implying stronger demand than Apple has supply for.

Apple has a broad lineup of iPhone models this year at a wide range of price points, starting with the $399 iPhone SE and ending with the $1,099 iPhone 12 Pro Max. U.S. carriers like AT&T and Verizon are also offering various discounts on the new iPhones as they try to attract more customers to their 5G networks.