Executives better get used to handling political risk no matter who wins the U.S. election
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An open border would allow Canadian companies to more easily participate in the U.S. economic recovery, which will be stronger if Democratic candidates reclaim the White House and the Senate, according to Oxford Economics. The research group estimates Democratic policies would result in economic growth of 4.9 per cent in 2021, while Republican control would correlate with an expansion of only 2.3 per cent.
Still, even if Biden represents a milder breeze, the wind will continue to blow in the same direction. Alex Bishop, a partner at Concierge Strategies, a Toronto-based business consultant, said Trump’s hostility forced Canada to toughen up a bit, and he thinks it would be a mistake to lose that newly acquired sense of independence just because Biden reminds some of a friendlier time.
What we care about is how stable is the landscape. We’ve gotten used to stability
Unnamed executive
Trump’s trade policies had significant Democratic support, and confronting China is one of the few issues on which both major U.S. parties agree. Canada should still look for ways to hedge its dependence on the U.S. economy.
“It’s hard to move,” Bishop said. “The good thing about Trump is that he forced Canada to look at things differently.”
Whoever wins, political risk, still a relatively new variable for a lot of Canadian executives, is here to stay. Governments and companies will have to step up their lobbying and intelligence gathering so they can stay ahead of tariffs and regulations. Some will need to rethink supply chains and possibly locate production in the U.S.
It means leaders are going to have to earn their paycheques. “Companies will have to be on their toes,” Schotter said. “They will need their A-game.”
Financial Post
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