President Trump Says He'll 'Be Back Soon' After Conflicting Reports; How Will Stock Market Rally, Dow Jones Futures React?
Where is the stock market rally going? Dow Jones futures won’t reopen until Sunday evening. But in the near term the answer may be another question: How is President Donald Trump doing?
President Trump said Saturday evening in a video from Walter Reed Medical Center that he’ll “be back soon.” He said, “I came here, wasn’t feeling so well. I feel much better now.”
The president’s doctor said in a statement Saturday night that Trump is improving since he went to Walter Reed on Friday evening. “While not yet out of the woods, the team remains cautiously optimistic,” Dr. Sean Conley said.
That followed mixed messages about the president’s health.
Trump Condition Improving, Doctor Says
Near Saturday midday, Conley said President Trump had been “fever free” for the prior 24 hours. Conley said he was “extremely happy” by the president’s improvement. He said Trump was having no trouble breathing and was not on oxygen. But he wouldn’t say if the president had been on oxygen, how high his fever got and whether he had suffered lung damage.
Other Reports Differ
The AP and New York Times reported that Trump had had trouble breathing and received supplemental oxygen on Friday, adding that was part of the reason why he went to Walter Reed Medical Center Friday evening.
Soon after Dr. Conley’s upbeat assessment, a source familiar with Trump’s health told White House pool reporters that “The president’s vitals over the last 24 hours were very concerning and the next 48 hours will be critical in terms of his care,” The person, who apparently was White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, added, “We’re still not on a clear path to a full recovery.”
A few hours later, Meadows had a far more-positive assessment: “The president is doing very well,” he told Reuters. “He is up and about and asking for documents to review. The doctors are very pleased with his vital signs.”
Also, at the Saturday briefing one of the doctors asaid Trump was doing well “72 hours” after diagnosis, but that would imply the president tested positive by Wednesday midday at the latest. That was significantly earlier than the White House had previously indicated. The White House said the doctor misspoke.
President Trump is assuredly getting the best possible care. He is taking the antiviral remdesivir from Gilead Sciences. On Friday, he took an experimental antibody cocktail from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals.
Still, Trump is 74 and overweight, putting him at higher risk from the coronavirus. It is one month from Election Day in the middle of a fragile economic recovery and negotiations over a new coronavirus stimulus bill.
Trump tweeted Saturday that America needs a new stimulus deal, urging Congress to reach an agreement soon: “Work together and get it done.”
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Stock Market Reaction To Trump Coronavirus News
ETFs tracking the major indexes fell modestly Friday evening on word that President Trump was heading to Walter Reed. How Trump’s condition changes over the weekend will likely drive Dow Jones futures and stock market trading on Monday.
Dow Jones futures will begin trading on Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures.
On Friday, the stock market rally suffered losses, especially on the Nasdaq, after the president tweeted that he and first lady Melania Trump had contracted the coronavirus.
The market hates uncertainty, especially when headlines can send the major indexes sharply in either direction. So it’s not a surprise that the stock market rally is flashing healthy and sickly indicators.
The Dow Jones staged a follow-through day on Wednesday to confirm the new stock market rally amid stimulus deal hopes. The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite also had solid gains but not enough for their own follow-through days. On Friday, stocks sold off on the Trump coronavirus bombshell. The Nasdaq was the big laggard, falling back below its 50-day moving average along with the S&P 500 index. But the Dow limited its losses.
Meanwhile, many leading stocks broke out or were setting up last week, even on Monday. Twilio and LGI Homes cleared buy points Friday, reflecting strength in many software and housing stocks.
Big-Cap Techs Struggle
But some megacap stocks had a tough time. Apple stock, Amazon.com and Microsoft all fell back below their 50-day lines. Adobe and Nvidia were big tech losers, but held their 50-day lines. Tesla tumbled following its Q3 delivery figures, though it held its 21-day exponential moving average.
Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Adobe, Nvidia and Tesla stock all fell slightly late Friday.
Nvidia stock, Adobe, Microsoft, LGI Homes and Tesla are on IBD Leaderboard. Microsoft stock and Adobe are on IBD Long-Term Leaders. Amazon stock, Adobe, Nvidia and Microsoft are on the IBD 50.
Dow Jones Futures Today
ETFs tracking the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4% late Friday as President Trump went to Walter Reed Medical Center.
Dow Jones futures opened for trading at 6 p.m. ET, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
The Stock Market Outlook Amid Election Day, Coronavirus Crosswinds
Coronavirus News
Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 35.13 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 1.03 million.
Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 7.60 million, with deaths above 214,000.
President Trump and his wife tested positive for the coronavirus after White House aide Hope Hicks did. Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien has the coronavirus. Also, former White House counselor Kellyanne Conway confirmed Friday night that she has Covid-19. GOP Sens. Mike Lee, Ron Johnson and Thom Tillis also recently tested positive for the coronavirus. So did former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Nearly all of these people were connected to the White House announcement for the Supreme Court nomination or Tuesday’s presidential debate. Joe Biden has tested negative for Covid-19.
Regeneron stock rose 3% late Friday on news that Trump had taken its coronavirus antibody cocktail, which has not yet had late-stage trials. Gilead stock was unchanged, as the Trump remdesivir news came later.
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Stock Market Rally Last Week
The coronavirus stock market rally ended last week with solid advances, but finished poorly.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 1.9% in last week’s stock market trading, not giving up much ground on Friday. The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite rose 1.5%. But they slashed weekly gains on Friday and closed back below their 50-day lines.
Among the trillion-dollar stocks, Apple rose 0.7% last week, but fell 3.2% to drop back below its 50-day line. Microsoft shed 0.8% on Friday and nearly 3% for the week. Amazon stock gained 1% for the week, but lost 3% on Friday.
Adobe stock and Nvidia both sank 4.1% on Friday, with the former losing 0.2% for the week while the latter clung to a 1.5% gain.
Twilio, LGI Homes Soar
Meanwhile, Twilio stock surged 18% last week, including a 13% pop to 290.36, clearing a 283.43 buy point from a double-bottom base. The communications software maker said late Thursday it would top its third-quarter sales target. At Thursday’s investor day event, Twilio said it expects sales growth to exceed 30% in each of the next four years. Wall Street had forecast 25% growth in 2021 and 23% in 2022.
LGI Homes stock climbed 2.5% on Friday, clearing a 124.04 buy point, according to MarketSmith. Shares sprinted 17% last week. Several other homebuilders are in or near buy zones.
Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF rose 2.1% last week. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF advanced 0.9%. While some software stocks did well on Friday, Microsoft and Adobe stock are IGV’s top two holdings. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF climbed 2.3%.
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Tesla Stock
Tesla stock was up strongly through Thursday, but tumbled 7.4% on Friday. Still, it held its 21-day line and closed the week 1.9% higher. Tesla deliveries came in at a record 139,300, officially beating lowered views. But there were widespread expectations of more than 140,000.
In recent months, Tesla stock rose in part on expectations of bullish catalysts. But S&P 500 inclusion so far hasn’t happened, Battery Day failed to wow (or at least justify certain analysts’ visions) and now Q3 deliveries were at best in line. Shares fell in all three cases. On the other hand, TSLA stock, despite wild volatility, has held up better than many big-cap techs.
Stock Market Analysis
A confirmed stock market rally is still valid until it undercuts its low. For the Dow Jones, that is its Sept. 24 low. It’s a bad sign for a newly confirmed stock market rally to close below the low of its follow-through day. The Dow fell below its Sept. 30 low on Friday, but closed well above it. The Nasdaq did close below its Sept. 30 low, but that index hasn’t had a FTD.
As for leading stocks, there have been plenty of quality names breaking out and setting up, even if the likes of Apple and Microsoft are more sluggish.
It’s hard to analyze a stock market that’s so headline-driven. Stimulus deal talk fueled the rally, and now President Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis triggered selling.
If Trump’s condition worsens over the weekend and coming days, the stock market rally could come under pressure. If he’s on the mend, the market may quickly rebound.
Investors would still face of gantlet of uncertainty, including the election, stimulus deal talks and coronavirus wave fears vs. Covid-19 vaccine hopes.
Step Cautiously
For now, it’s a confirmed stock market rally and a number of leaders are actionable, so investors can make buys. But the mixed signals and heightened uncertainty suggest this is a time for moderate exposure. Don’t go heavily into margin.
Let the stock market draw you in or out.
If the stock market rally improves, you can be more aggressive by filling out positions or new initial stakes. If the indexes reverse toward lows and new buys sour, you can pull out.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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