The election presents investors as many questions as answers: Morning Brief

Market Trading EssentialsNovember 4, 2020

4 minutes read

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

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Election night turns into election week.

Election Day 2020 has come and gone.

And we’re only somewhat closer to knowing who the next president of the United States will be and what policy regime is likely to shape the pandemic response and continued economic recovery.

As of 6:00 a.m. ET, former Vice President Joe Biden held a 238-213 lead in the electoral college over President Donald Trump, according to the Associated Press.

As Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid put it in a note to clients published early Wednesday, “If you’ve come here looking for certainty this morning then maybe turn away and look at the sports pages for last night’s results.”

“Whatever happens now there are two conclusions so far from last night’s election. 1) This is one of the worst opinion polling performances in history, 2) this won’t have a firm conclusion for somewhere between several hours (probably days) to several weeks with the risk of court cases high.”

And so now investors, citizens, and interested observers the world over wait for what many experts had cautioned could follow the 2020 presidential race — a drawn-out period of mail-in, absentee, and early vote counting from Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania accompanied by potential court battles and certain uncertainty.

Overnight, futures markets were volatile as early votes in from Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia showed these states breaking towards Trump.

All three states were seen ahead of election night as potential harbingers of a “Blue Wave” outcome in which Biden would clinch a definitive victory in the electoral college along with Democrats taking a majority in the Senate. This outcome was quickly priced out.

Stock futures rallied hard — particularly big cap U.S. tech stocks — and bond yields fell as expectations for massive stimulus spending dropped and investors moved into what has worked during Trump’s time in office. Betting markets closely followed by investors swung Tuesday evening towards indicating Trump was the odds-on favorite to win the White House.

But around midnight, markets swung back as it appeared Biden was likely to win Arizona, which was eventually called for the former Vice President by the Associated Press.

By early Wednesday morning, betting markets had pegged Biden as a slight favorite to win the presidency and futures had moved back to being largely unchanged.

So in the days ahead, millions of votes are set to be counted. The election, in other words, is an ongoing event here in the U.S. No matter what either candidate says.

In a speech early Wednesday morning, Trump called it for himself.

“This is a fraud on the American republic. This is an embarrassment to our country,” Trump said. “We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election.”

Meanwhile, Biden told supporters in a speech, “I’m here to tell you tonight we believe we’re on track to win this election.”

And while the Morning Brief noted last month that under either Democratic or Republican leadership stocks tend to do fine, the uncertainty now presented to investors is likely to create an uneasy few days in markets.

Days that risk turning into weeks without a firm answer.

By Myles Udland, reporter and anchor for Yahoo Finance Live. Follow him at @MylesUdland

What to watch today

Economy

7:00 a.m. ET: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Oct. 30 (1.7% during prior week)
8:15 a.m. ET: ADP Employment Change, October (650,000 expected, 749,000 in September)
8:30 a.m. ET: Trade Balance, September (-$63.9 billion expected, -$67.1 billion in August)
9:45 a.m. ET: Markit US Services PMI, October final (56.0 expected, 56.0 in prior print)
9:45 a.m. ET: Markit US Composite PMI, October final (55.5 in prior print)
10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Services Index, October (57.5 expected, 57.8 in September);

Earnings

Pre-market

6:00 a.m. ET: Hilton (HLT) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 4 cents per share on revenue of $981.42 million
7:30 a.m. ET: Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) is expected to report an adjusted loss of $2.80 per share on revenue of $1.51 billion

Post-market

4:00 p.m. ET: Qualcomm (QCOM) is expected to report an adjusted loss of $1.20 per share on revenue of $5.94 billion
4:00 p.m. ET: Qorvo (QRVO) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $2.13 per share on revenue of $1.01 billion
4:00 p.m. ET: Expedia (EXPE) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 84 cents per share on revenue of $1.39 billion
4:05 p.m. ET: Upwork (UPWK) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 3 cents per share on revenue of $91.22 million
4:05 p.m. ET: Fitbit (FIT) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 12 cents per share on revenue of $299 million
4:05 p.m. ET: GoDaddy (GDDY) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 50 cents per share on revenue of $835.17 million
4:10 p.m. ET: Match Group (MTCH) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 46 cents per share on revenue of $605.88 million
4:25 p.m. ET: Allstate (ALL) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.77 per share on revenue of $10.36 billion
6:20 p.m. ET: Apache (APA) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 36 cents per share on revenue of $991.21 million