(Bloomberg) —
Silver jumped to an almost eight-year high, extending a surge that started with the retail investor frenzy sweeping through markets.
Most-active futures rose as much as 13% to $30.35 an ounce on the Comex, the highest since February 2013. That followed a weekend buying binge that overwhelmed online sellers of silver coins and bars from the U.S. to Australia. BlackRock Inc.’s iShares Silver Trust, the largest exchange-traded product tracking the metal, recorded an unprecedented $944 million net inflow on Friday.
Like the buying stampede in GameStop Corp. and other small-cap stocks that has captivated the financial world in recent weeks, silver’s initial advance can be traced to Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum. One post last week declared the metal “THE BIGGEST SHORT IN THE WORLD” and encouraged traders to pile into the iShares trust as a way to stick it to big banks. Exactly what kinds of investors are behind the current run-up in silver prices is unclear.
No doubt that “the market is more than happy to let the Reddit Legion push it wherever it wants to push it,” said Tai Wong, head of metals derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets.
But there are conflicting messages about silver on the forum now and it’s unclear how long retail investors will stick to the silver trade. Already some prominent members of the WallStreetBets forum have advised against it, with some noting that Ken Griffin’s Citadel Advisors LLC, a favorite bogeyman of the Reddit crowd, is listed as one of the biggest shareholders of the iShares silver trust.
“I can envisage a scenario where maybe a hedge fund has purchased maybe a short-term tactical long position, so the upside could be a combination of several factors now,” said Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus.
Short-term forward rates on the London silver market flattened on Monday, indicating strong demand for the metal in coming weeks.
Silver differs in important ways from stocks like GameStop. For one, the scope for a short squeeze in silver is far less obvious: money managers have had a net-long position on the metal since mid-2019, futures and options data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.
The market for silver is also by some measures much deeper than those for smaller stocks like GameStop. The bricks-and-mortar video-game retailer had a market capitalization of about $1.4 billion in mid January, before the Reddit frenzy sent the company’s value soaring more than 16-fold. By contrast, London vaults held 1.08 billion ounces of silver at the end of November, according to London Bullion Market Association data. That’s worth almost $32 billion at current prices.
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Even if the rally fizzles, it could have ramifications beyond what has typically been a relatively niche corner of the commodities world. As the first high-profile target of the retail craze to start trading on Monday, silver may help set the tone this week for managers trying to gauge how Reddit-fueled volatility will impact their risk models and potentially cascade from one asset to the next.
Momentum Trade
“Last week’s events have shown it to be unwise to doubt the purchasing power of retail investors, and this has been sufficiently demonstrated again on the silver market,” said Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “They may find it a bit harder to squeeze the silver market than they did with GameStop — the former is much bigger and more liquid — but the momentum looks like it rests with them at the moment.”
The iShares Silver Trust rose 5.9% at 11:05 a.m. in New York. Futures for March delivery advanced 7.3% on the Comex, after rising more than 5% last week. Spot silver climbed to as high as $30.1003 an ounce. Other precious metals also advanced. Spot gold rose 0.8%, while platinum jumped 3.8%.
The buying furor also fed into mining shares. Mexico City-based silver explorer Fresnillo Plc surged as much as 21% in London trading. China Silver Group Ltd. rose as much as 63% in Hong Kong, while Australia’s Silver Mines Ltd. gained as much as 49%.
The calls to buy silver began appearing on WallStreetBets as early as Wednesday, when the mania surrounding GameStop reached a fever pitch. Some of the posts touched on a similar David-vs-Goliath theme that has inspired individual investors to take on short-selling hedge funds: “Any short squeeze in silver paper shorts would be EPIC. We know billion (sic) banks are manipulating gold and silver to cover real inflation.”
Silver has performed well over the past year, rallying more than 60% on a weaker dollar and hopes for an end to the pandemic. It has also attracted bullish commentary from some of the biggest Wall Street banks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. described silver as the “preferred precious metal” in a Jan. 27 research note that had a price target of $30 an ounce. Net-bullish bets by money managers rose to a three-week high in the week to Jan. 26, according to CFTC data compiled by Bloomberg.
Locking Up
Still, that hasn’t stopped some retail investors from piling in. By Sunday, sellers of physical silver including Apmex — often called the Walmart of precious metals products in North America — said they were unable to process orders until Asian markets opened because of record demand.
Ken Lewis, Apmex’s chief executive officer, said the decision to temporarily suspend silver sales was unprecedented in the company’s history and that it may take longer then usual to fill orders going forward.
“As we evaluate the markets, it is difficult to know where silver’s price and demand will go in the coming day and weeks,” Lewis said, adding that his firm is “locking up any metal we can find in the marketplace.”
(An earlier version of this story corrected value of London vault holdings in fifth paragraph)
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