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A Tesla fan got even more bullish on Tuesday, despite the stock’s recent drop. Tesla shares are up in premarket trading, but an upbeat take from the analyst isn’t the only reason shares are on the move.
New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu is a longtime Tesla (ticker: TSLA) bull. But that doesn’t mean he always rates shares Buy. He is willing to downgrade the stock to Hold when prices run ahead of what he believes is fair.
Ferragu rated Tesla stock Buy from mid-2018—when he launched coverage of the stock—until, essentially, mid-2020, when shares were at about $180. He was Hold-rated for a couple of months before upgrading shares to Buy around last October. But then Tesla stock ran to more than $600—from above around $400—in the blink of an eye. That 50% gain prompted another downgrade to Hold.
Now Ferragu is saying buy Tesla again. And he raised his price target to $900 a share from $578.
“As much as the market severely corrected the recent excesses of optimism reflected in Tesla’s valuation, our recent work strengthened our confidence about the solid outlook for the company in the next 2 years,” wrote Ferragu. “Tesla will be in a position to deliver 2 [million] units in 2023 and deliver earnings of $12, more than 50% above current expectations.” With better-than-expected earnings coming, according to analysts, he believes the stock will trade for the higher end of his expected price-to-earnings ratio range of 50 times to 100 times.
“Tesla [is] the #1 stock we recommend buying in this pullback.”
The pullback has been brutal. The Nasdaq Composite index, which is home to many richly valued, high-growth stocks like Tesla, is down more than 11% from its February high. Tesla stock is down more than 37% from its January high.
Inflation fears are a big reason for the drop in Tesla and other tech stocks. Higher inflation means higher interest rates, which are problematic for growth stocks in two ways. First, a rise in rates makes funding growth more expensive. Second, high-growth companies generate most of their cash flow and potential dividends far in the future. That cash flow is relatively less attractive as investors can earn more interest right now.
Inflation fears will continue to affect Tesla stock for a while. That makes Wednesday’s inflation data a little higher stakes than usual. Economists expect prices—excluding food and energy—to be 0.2% higher in February compared with January. (Economists focus on inflation excluding food and energy to avoid commodity price swings in the numbers.)
The third reason Tesla shares are rising is China. Tesla delivered about 18,300 cars there in February, more that the company delivered in January. That is an achievement considering the Lunar New Year holiday dented February -delivery figures at companies such as NIO (NIO) and XPeng (XPEV) “We would characterize these February results as quite impressive and ahead of Street expectations,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives tells Barron’s. “From a run-rate perspective, Tesla is on track to be on a [200,000-plus] unit trajectory in China for the year which remains a linchpin for the company hitting its [750,000 to 800,000] annual numbers for the year.”
Tesla stock was up almost 6% in premarket trading, and shot up 7.3% shortly after market open. The upgrade helps. So does the bounce in tech stocks. So do the China numbers. The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.5%, bouncing back after the recent selloff. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are up about 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively.
With Ferragu’s upgrade, about 33% of analysts covering Tesla rate shares Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the Dow is about 60%. Analysts always have trouble reconciling Tesla’s valuation with other car companies. General Motors (GM), for instance, trades for a single-digit PE ratio. Tesla trades for a triple-digit PE ratio. Tesla, of course, grows much faster than the broader automotive industry.
Write to Al Root at [email protected]
