Tesla shares are down 10% in 2021.
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The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.
Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla (ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.
Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.
So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.
NIO shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker reduced guidance for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.
For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.
Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.
RBC analyst Joe Spak is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.
Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.
In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rates hit growth stocks in two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.
Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The S&P 500 is up about 0.7%.
Write to Al Root at [email protected]
