Bitcoin has dropped more than 40% in the past two months, and oddsmakers are beginning to wager that the cryptocurrency has a much steeper fall ahead.
Bookmakers at US-Bookies.com have raised the odds that Bitcoin drops to $10,000 this year to 8-to-11—a 57.9% implied probability.
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A handful of bookies are even more pessimistic. Bitcoin presently has 33-to-1 odds of dropping below $1,000 by the end of the year (just a 2.9% implied probability). That, of course, is unlikely, but it’s notable that in mid-April, the odds of the crypto falling that low were 250-to-1 (a 0.4% implied probability).
Making such wagers on crypto, at least in a casino or online betting forum, is illegal in the U.S. The data from US-Bookies is taken from European and worldwide markets, where it is allowed.
The shift in oddsmaker sentiment comes amid bullish and bearish news about Bitcoin. El Salvador recently endorsed the crypto as legal tender. And global banking regulators have been increasingly signaling a rising acceptance of the digital currency.
But news that the U.S. government recovered nearly all of the ransom paid by Colonial Pipeline shook some investors’ confidence in the security of Bitcoin transfers. Meanwhile, the IRS has said it is prioritizing an effort to enforce tax collection on Bitcoin trades.
Bitcoin was treading water in midday trading Thursday, up slightly by 2.5% to $37,115, according to Coindesk. Just one month ago, though, it was trading at $55,715.
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