The investor who sold his bear fund as the 2008 financial crisis was unfolding is delivering a grim long-term prognosis to Wall Street.
From the S&P 500 to Big Tech to bitcoin, David Tice warns it’s a “very dangerous period” for investors right now.
“The market is very overpriced in terms of future earnings. We are adding debt like we’ve never seen,” the former Prudent Bear Fund manager told “Trading Nation” on Friday. “We have the Treasury market acting very strange with rates falling dramatically.”
Tice, who’s known for making bearish bets during bull markets, now advises the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF, which has $70 million in assets under management. The fund is up 3% over the past month, but it’s off 62% over the last two years.
He acknowledges it’s tough to time the next major pullback, and he’s often early. However, Tice is convinced a market meltdown is unavoidable.
“We’re not out of the woods yet, and this is a dangerous market,” Tice reiterated.
He’s encouraging investors to weigh the risks: Try to earn 3% to 5% near-term gains while contending with the threat of a 40% pullback? Tice thinks it’s a bet not worth taking.
Tice is particularly worried about Big Tech and the FAANG stocks, which include Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet, formerly known as Google.
“A lot of money has been thrown at Alphabet and Microsoft, Apple and Facebook, Twitter, etc.,” noted Tice. “Costs are going up in that sector.”
Bitcoin is ‘very dangerous to hold today’
He’s also urging investors to be vigilant in the cryptocurrency space. Tice, who came into the year as a bitcoin bull, turned bearish on bitcoin when it hit all-time highs in March.
“We had a bitcoin position when bitcoin was at $10,000,” Tice said. “However, when it got to $60,000 we felt like that was long in the tooth… Lately, there’s been a lot more uproar from central bankers, Bank for International Settlements [and] the Bank of England have made profound negative statements. I think it’s very dangerous to hold today.”
Due to his overall bearishness, Tice co-founded hedge fund Morand-Tice Capital Management almost exactly a year ago. It’s devoted to metal and mining stocks. Tice, a long-time gold and silver bull, believes it’s a once in a decade opportunity for investors.
“You look at this lack of discipline in monetary and fiscal markets. Gold is truly the place to be,” said Tice. “Over 5,000 years, gold and silver do very well as protection against fiat money.”
Gold closed at $1,812.50 an ounce on Friday. It’s down 4% so far this year and up 28% over the past two years. Tice expects the precious metal to rally 10% to $2,000 by December.
“I would be owning gold, especially gold and silver mining companies. These companies have never been cheaper. Many are at single digit multiples yet have potentially 15 to 20% growth rate in earnings even with this flat gold price,” Tice said. “But then you add on what we think is going to be a 20% annual increase in the gold price, and these companies are going to be outstanding opportunities.”
