Moderna Inc. shares MRNA, -14.88% tumbled 16% Wednesday to put them on track for their biggest percentage decline since May of 2020, according to Dow Jones data. The stock has now fallen for four of the past five days and has lost more than 20% in a two-day period. On Tuesday, BofA analyst Geoff Meacham published a bearish note on the company that questioned its valuation after its market cap grew to almost $200 billion, putting it ahead of far more established drug companies like the 40-year-old Amgen AMGN, +0.17%, currently valued at about $129.3 billion, and the 130-year old Merck MRK, +0.37%, valued at about $189.7 billion. According to Meachem’s analysis, it should be about 75% below its current price. While Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine has been a major contributor to its market cap, to justify $200 billion in value, one would have to assume two things: Moderna would deliver 1 billion to 1.5 billion doses of its COVID-19 vaccine each year through 2038; and its entire pipeline will be 100% successful. That currently involves four programs in Phase 2 trials, 10 Phase 1 programs and eight preclinical programs not yet in human testing, for total peak sales of $30 billion. Moderna’s recent revenue has come to about $7 billion in the past four quarters. Shares have gained 266% in the year to date, while the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF XBI, -1.19% has fallen 11% and the S&P 500 SPX, +0.19% has gained 18%.
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