Joe Oliver: Conservatives must persuade the electorate, not pander to the left

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Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole’s strategy to broaden the Tory base did not achieve the breakthrough he sought, so it is time for a deep rethink.

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Every progressive, and most of the mainstream commentariat, endlessly proclaim that the only road to victory for Conservatives is to embrace the values and policies of the centre-left. In their view, the Conservatives had no hope of winning unless O’Toole adopted all the revered shibboleths and politically correct strictures of the Liberal elite.

The Progressive Conservative wing of the party believe a “moderate” policy platform need not betray core conservative principles or alienate too many right-of-centre voters. However, that belief is challenged by the demands of the woke establishment for obeisance to an imminent climate emergency, transitioning out oil and gas, profligate spending to meet every social need and generally bigger government.

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These priorities run counter to conservative values, and they are not the issues that fire up the Conservative base or persuade swing voters, who have plenty of big government, environmental alarmist parties to choose from.

O’Toole had the requisite qualities to win a plurality of seats. He is an affable, articulate advocate of a middle-of-the-road platform who served in the Armed Forces, was a lawyer and has solid middle-class roots. Nothing threatening there.

And he was up against a privileged narcissist who called an unnecessary election during the fourth wave of the pandemic on the day Kabul fell to the Taliban. A prime minister twice convicted of ethical breaches. A self-proclaimed feminist and anti-racist who broke faith with women and posed in blackface.

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A leader who weakened the economy, undermined national unity and fostered social conflict, but somehow managed to hold onto a minority mandate. A prime minister who professed undying support for Aboriginal peoples but cannot supply drinkable water to reserves.

A man who proclaimed that “Canada is back” but allowed the two Michaels to languish in Chinese prisons and was excluded from AUKUS because our allies don’t trust our commitment, or our ability to keep secrets. A head of government who thinks climate change threatens humanity but missed every emissions target.

An existential identity debate within the conservative movement has been simmering since the merger of the PC and Reform parties. Red Tories argue that because Canada is basically a liberal country, the only route to a majority for a “true blue” Conservative party is a strong showing by the NDP, like Jack Layton’s orange wave in 2011.

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However, a long-term winning strategy cannot be based on the uncertain fortunes of a third party, over which Conservatives have no control. Therefore, the argument goes, it is crucial to broaden the base by moving to the centre.

The counter-argument is that transforming (or surrendering) to Liberal-lite will rarely help because, with few policy differences between the parties, the public usually sticks with the devil it knows. Moreover, the Liberal party has a bigger base and a Conservative leader typically has less name recognition.

Also, Liberals will never be outbid, because they are indifferent to the size of deficits. The sad evidence is that O’Toole’s move to the centre did not attract new voters, yet it alienated the right-wing and yielded ground to Maxime Bernier’s People’s party.

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There is an economic and cultural route to broaden the appeal of Conservative values and policies: bring the public to you, rather than mimic the left-wing’s latest faddish ideals and retreaded socialist truths. That is what leadership is all about.

Canadians understand government borrowing cannot be endlessly profligate. They know jobs suffer if employers are disincentivized from expanding. They realize no resource-rich county deliberately strangles its energy industry, which contributes enormously to jobs, public-sector funding and economic growth.

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They cherish personal freedom and agency and bridle under increasingly intrusive regulations and higher taxes. Canadians are patriots who are proud of their country’s history and democratic traditions and want it to punch above its weight on the world stage.

They acknowledge historical wrongs, but many do not believe Canada is systemically racist or that it committed genocide. They are tolerant of cultural differences but want to preserve Canada’s core identity and values. They support legal, nondiscriminatory immigration within reasonable limits.

Most reject divisive identity politics and are repelled by radical ideologies that condemn individuals as irredeemably guilty based on their race, gender or heritage. Blue-collar workers, like other Canadians, want a political leader they can identify with, someone who cares about pocket-book issues.

Conservatives need to have a broad and in-depth discussion about what they stand for and how that can be convincingly conveyed to Canadians. At stake is not only partisan politics, but the future of Canada, as we confront another painful 18 months of Liberal misrule.

Financial Post

Joe Oliver is a former minister of natural resources and minister of finance in the government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper.