Joe Oliver: Yes, a Tory minority could govern

Article content

Despite recent movement in the polls it’s still possible that when all the votes are counted Canada may have a minority Conservative government. The numbers are within the margin of error and the Tories tend to outperform poll predictions by a point or two. There is no possibility they would win a plurality of seats without ranking first in votes because of their traditionally inefficient voting distribution, i.e., very high numbers in Alberta and the Prairies. This time their western strength is somewhat diminished, which could actually lead to a stronger overall outcome, based on the same vote tally.

Article content

If the prime minister loses, he might be able to inform Governor General Mary Simon that he has lined up the NDP as an informal supporter or, far less likely, a coalition partner and so has the confidence of the House of Commons. Parliamentary tradition is clear that she would grant him that opportunity. Many people believe Jagmeet Singh would never support the Conservatives and therefore any minority situation guarantees the Liberals stay in power. That reasoning is flawed, however.

Countries that have a proportional representative voting system are used to complex coalition-building in which the biggest party does not always lead a governing coalition. However, the only Canadian federal precedent for a political party retaining government with fewer seats and votes than another party was in 1925, when Mackenzie King stayed on for eight months with the support of western Progressives even though his Liberals had 15 fewer seats than Arthur Meighen’s Conservatives.

Article content

Canadians would likely be shocked and upset if Mr. Trudeau tried to govern in those circumstances. In many people’s eyes, he would lack the moral authority and political legitimacy. Given that, how likely is it that he and Jagmeet Singh would dare try? If they misjudged the public’s reaction, both their parties could pay a devastating price at the next election, perhaps 18 months later. After the 2008 election an abortive Liberal/NDP coalition supported by the Bloc Québécois dissolved because of popular opposition, even though it had a majority in the House of Commons.

A Conservative minority government would very likely spell the end of Justin Trudeau’s leadership of the Liberal party, so he might be tempted to take one last existential gamble. But he called the election to achieve a majority. A defeat would mean his willingness to put his personal ambition ahead of party and country had been compounded by ruinous political judgement. The caucus and party establishment, notorious for caring first and always about power, would consider him politically tainted. The party would need time to choose a new political saviour, a process certain to be messy, sullied by a blame game and a possibly toxic tussle between Blue Grits and hardcore progressives.

Article content

The NDP would be dispirited, not to mention effectively broke, by lack of a breakthrough. Dippers have been carrying the Liberals since 2019, are tiring of it and fear being swallowed up by the Liberal gallop to the left. Continuing to provide a lifeline to a Liberal minority government could end very badly if voters’ confidence in the party’s independence is eroded.

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul is in a very tough battle in her own riding. She will be under intense pressure following what seems likely to be a poor national result of roughly three per cent, even if that’s mainly the result of vicious infighting by her detractors in her own party, about whom it is an open question whether they hate Israel more than they care about the environment. She should consider switching to another party that appreciates her evident ability and dedication — though probably not the Liberals, who provided a home for Green defector Jenica Atwin, even after she accused Israel of apartheid. The subsequent softening of her rhetoric and her if-apology (“If I have offended anyone…” ) were designed not to unduly tarnish the Liberal brand’s self-proclaimed opposition to anti-Semitism.

Article content

Should he win the most seats, Erin O’Toole would almost certainly signal his willingness to work with other parties in the national interest and gather support for legislation on a case-by-case basis. And, after one unnecessary $610-million election, the opposition parties would not dare bring down a new Conservative government and trigger another. A year or more’s grace would let Erin O’Toole show Canadians what he stands for and what he can achieve, paving the way for a majority mandate in about 18 months.

The political and economic future of the country could be transformed next week by a few swing ridings where, in what is still a very close election, victory is unpredictable. Hang on to your hats.

Joe Oliver was minister of natural resources and minister of finance in the government of Stephen Harper.