A trader works at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), August 19, 2021.
Andrew Kelly | Reuters
U.S. stock futures were slightly lower on Thursday following a rebound on Wall Street as the market tried to avert September’s seasonally weak trading pattern.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 26 points. S&P 500 futures lost 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures shed 0.2%
Despite a rebound on Wednesday, the S&P 500 and the Dow are still in the red for September. So far this month, the 30-stock Dow is down 1.6%, while the S&P 500 has declined 0.9%, on track for its worst monthly performance since January. The Nasdaq has fallen 0.6% this month.
After seven straight months of gains for the S&P 500 and a near 20% rally to records this year, many on Wall Street expect bumpier trading and lower returns for the rest of the year. History is also not on the market’s side as September tends to be a typically negative month for stocks. The S&P 500 has fallen 0.56% during the month on average since 1945, according to data from CFRA.
Friday begins a particularly weak period for stocks as those September losses typically come in the back half of the month.
“The wall of worry is becoming increasingly challenging to climb, with rising depth and breadth of concerns and a potentially tired market,” said Mark Hackett, Nationwide’s chief of investment research.
“The stress factors facing the market have not materially changed, including the Delta variant, earnings headwinds from supply chain and labor challenges, fiscal and monetary tailwind shifting to headwinds and bubbling concerns around China,” Hackett said.
Futures could be on hold until traders get a look at August retail sales due out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Retail sales are expected to decrease by 0.8% month-over-month, according to the consensus estimate from Dow Jones.
Investors will also monitor the latest jobless claims data on Thursday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a total of 320,000 Americans filed for unemployment insurance in the week ended Sept.11, slightly up from 310,000 in the week prior.
Moderna rose slightly in premarket trading after the company released more data on breakthrough Covid cases that supports the push for the wide use of vaccine booster shots.
The S&P 500 gained 0.9% Wednesday amid a 3.8% jump in the energy sector, posting its biggest daily increase since Aug. 27. The blue-chip Dow advanced more than 200 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%.
Another reason why the back half of September could be volatile is due to so-called quadruple witching occurring at the end of the week as stock and index futures and options are set to expire on the same day.
