The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged higher early on Thursday, having pulled back sharply in the previous session, ahead of an update on third-quarter gross domestic product.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note added 1.2 basis points, rising to 1.541% at 7:30 a.m. ET. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped by 1 basis point to 1.931%. Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.
The 10-year rate fell back below the 1.6% mark in Wednesday’s trading session to as low as 1.52%. The rally in the 10-year Treasuries seemed to be accelerated by the Bank of Canada announcing that it would end its quantitative easing program sooner than expected. However, the European Central Bank left its asset purchases unchanged on Thursday.
“The last few weeks have seen the ‘hawkish’ global central banks making a lot of noise (BOE/BOC/ Reserve Bank of New Zealand) but the ECB and Fed (who are dovish compared to those) have been relatively quiet,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said in a note. “Point being, it’s been a consistent drum beat of hawkishness while the ‘doves’ have been quiet. Well, that potentially changes starting today with the ECB.”
Treasury yields have fluctuated as investors remain concerned with the risk of “stagflation,” where inflation rises but economic growth slows.
Dan Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis Gestion, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday that the risk of stagflation was increasing but it was not evident yet “because the expectations of growth remain relatively stable for 2022.”
Nevertheless, Lacalle said the bond market was starting to react to the risk of stagflation.
The 10-year yield started to rebound on Thursday morning, with the Commerce Department due to release annualized GDP growth data for the third quarter at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the economy to have expanded by just 2.8% in the previous quarter.
The Labor Department is also set to release the number of jobless claims filed during the week ended Oct. 23 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Pending home sales data for September is then due to come out at 10 a.m. ET.
Auctions are scheduled to be held on Thursday for $60 billion of four-week bills, $25 billion of eight-week bills and $62 billion of seven-year notes.
— CNBC’s Yun Li contributed to this market report.
