Bitcoin could hit $70,000 in December, based on this valuation model, some analysts say

Most of the top 50 cryptocurrencies were in red as of 4 p.m. Eastern Time Tuesday, according to CoinMarketCap. Ether ETHUSD, +1.07% is recently trading at $3,487, down 0.6% over the past 24 hours. Dogecoin DOGEUSD, +2.30% recorded a 1.4% loss over the past 24 hours, recently trading at $0.22.

Bitcoin’s price swing isn’t unusual considering a recent uptick in volatility, Louis LaValle, managing director at crypto fund manager 3iQ Digital Assets told MarketWatch in an interview.

The BitVol Index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility for bitcoin option prices, has jumped more than 10% over the last 10 days, LaValle noted. 

Some analysts attributed the downturn of bitcoin to the contagion of the smaller cryptocurrencies. “The wider Alt (altcoin, or alternatives to bitcoin) market suffered losses, and eventually weighed on Bitcoin sentiment,” Matt Blom, global head of sales and trading at crypto exchange Eqonex, wrote in his Tuesday notes. 

From a technical perspective, bitcoin could embrace a two-week consolidation phase, as a new short-term countertrend signal appeared on Sunday, Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of research firm Fairlead Strategies wrote in Monday notes.

However, after the consolidation, bitcoin could test a record high in the coming weeks, as the cryptocurrency maintains a positive intermediate-term momentum, Stockton noted.

Armando Aguilar, digital asset strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors, echoed the bullish view, saying that bitcoin could soon reach an record high. The market has seen institutional inflows, amid optimism that the SEC would soon approve a bitcoin futures ETF.

There has been a recent increase in transaction volume of bitcoin, mostly the transactions with sizes larger than $10 million, Aguilar noted, citing data from Glassnode.

“We note that during its prior run to an record high, BTC benefited from a similar increase in larger-sized transactions, likely from institutional allocations and deep-pocketed traders entering long positions,” Aguilar commented to MarketWatch via email.

Based on stock-to-flow models, BTC could see prices surpass $70,000 by year-end, Aguilar said. Stock-to-flow is a measure that gauges the current circulating supply of an asset against the flow of new production to forecast price moves.  

“Most analysts predict an all-time high in November, with a rally possibly continuing into January, February,” Rosh Singh, chief executive officer at crypto trading platform Quadency said.

Other crypto happenings

• Nasdaq-listed crypto exchange Coinbase COIN, -2.80% is launching a marketplace for nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, as interests in the space remain heated. OpenSea, the largest NFT marketplace, recorded about $2.8 billion trading volume for the past 30 days, according to data site DappRadar.
• Coinbase’s rival exchange, FTX launched an NFT marketplace on Monday via its U.S. arm, with initial support for NFTs on the Solana blockchain.

• Payment processing company Stripe is building a crypto team. “I’m hiring engineers and designers to build the future of Web3 payments,” Guillaume Poncin, the company’s head of engineering for crypto wrote in a tweet.