Zoom Video Communications stock remains under considerable selling pressure, as investors adjust their thinking on the videoconferencing company as its growth rate continues to ebb and the world emerges from the pandemic.
Zoom (ticker: ZM) reports financial results after the close of trading on Monday. For the fiscal third quarter through Oct. 31, the company has projected revenue of $1.02 billion, with non-GAAP earnings of $1.07 to $1.08 a share. Street estimates call for $1.02 billion and $1.09 a share.
Zoom shares have fallen 28% since the company reported results for the July quarter, reflecting growing concerns about both slowing growth and increased competition from other players in the videoconferencing space, in particular Microsoft Teams. Since Zoom last reported financial results, the company suffered the collapse of its proposed acquisition of the call-center software operator Five9 (FIVN).
With its core videoconferencing business under pressure, Zoom has been pushing more aggressively into new areas, in particular Zoom Phone, the company’s cloud-based telephony business. But competition in that market remains fierce, from RingCentral and others. At the same time, there are concerns that usage of the core Zoom service is falling as schools and businesses reopen, reducing the need to be in Zoom meetings throughout the day.
Citi analyst Tyler Radke wrote in a research note last week that the setup for Zoom’s earnings looks mixed. “Potential headwinds from reopening churn and summer seasonality” are likely to limit revenue upside, he said.
However, Radke also notes that “sentiment is quite negative,” and that guidance was relatively conservative—he sees potential for a 2% to 3% beat on the revenue line. That said, Radke also says Zoom is unlikely to aggressively raise full-year guidance “given few signs of incremental improvement” in the business.
Radke maintains his Neutral rating and $304 target on the stock, anticipating that the company’s growth rate is headed to below 20% in fiscal 2023 and beyond. And he sees the opportunities in Phone and other areas as small, and “likely unable to offset a larger-scale deceleration” in the core video meetings segment.
Morgan Stanley analyst Meta Marshall is more upbeat. She maintains an Overweight rating on the stock, though she trimmed her target price this week to $365, from $400. She thinks the Street has overly discounted Zoom’s enterprise business, and says the company remains in the early days of a $70 billion opportunity in unified communications. Any signs of weakness in the small- and medium-size business market could pressure the stock, she warns, but adds that she would be a buyer on any weakness connected with earnings.
For the fiscal fourth quarter ending in January, the Street consensus calls for revenue of $1.02 billion and profits of $1.09 a share. Zoom last quarter projected fiscal 2022 full-year revenue of $4.01 billion to $4.02 billion, with earnings of $4.75 to $4.79 a share.
Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected]
