The latest offer — 0.27 common shares of Gold Royalty for every one share of Elemental Royalties — values Elemental at C$1.78 per share, a 37% premium to Elemental shareholders based on the closing share prices of each company on December 17. Gold Royalties noted in a press release that the C$1.78 per share offer exceeds Elemental’s peak share price in 2021.
If the transaction is approved, Elemental shareholders will own about 12% of the combined company.
“Gold Royalty has completed three acquisitions in 2021, and in each case the implied premium paid is higher today than at the time of the transaction announcements due to the strong performance of the Gold Royalty shares, which could further enhance the ultimate premium realized by Elemental shareholders,” Gold Royalty stated in its press release. Its three previous acquisitions were: Ely Gold Royalties, Abitibi Royalties, and Golden Valley Mines and Royalties.
Other advantages of its offer, Gold Royalty said, included having ownership “in a larger, more diversified, higher quality portfolio of royalty assets anchored by cornerstone royalties on Canadian Malartic (Quebec, Canada), Fenelon (Quebec, Canada), and Karlawinda (Australia),” as well as a “deep development and exploration pipeline.”
In addition, it said, Gold Royalty has about $30 million in cash and securities and no debt, and if approved, the business combination would position the larger company “as the preeminent intermediate gold royalty company.”
Jaques Wortman, an analyst who covers Elemental Royalties at Laurentian Bank Securities Equity Research, described Gold Royalty’s offer as a “compelling proposition” for Elemental’s shareholders.
Wortman noted that in addition to “enhanced trading liquidity” and the “successful track record” of Gold Royalty’s management team, the rationale for the deal included the 37% premium; a “sector-leading portfolio of 200 strategic royalties;” and “a path to a re-rerate” for Elemental shareholders due to “the combined company’s increased scale, portfolio diversification and trading liquidity.”
But Wortman also believes that a competing bid could emerge due to Elemental’s “compelling combination of quality, high-value royalty positions and near-term revenue growth and critical mass.”
The analyst noted that Elemental’s attributable gold production “is expected to continue to ramp higher, allowing Elemental to generate in excess of C$10 million of royalty revenue in 2022.”
“Elemental’s near-term revenue prospects are highly attractive as they fill a void present in other royalty companies,” he wrote in his research note to clients, adding that potential competitors to Gold Royalty include Maverix Metals (TSX: MMX; NYSE-AM: MMX); Metalla Royalty & Streaming (TSXV: MTA; NYSE: MTA); EMX Royalty (TSXV: EMX; NYSE-AM: EMX) and Nomad Royalty (TSX: NSR).
“With that said,” he added, “we believe the Gold Royalty transaction is a great ‘fit’ for Elemental, as it fills Gold Royalty’s 2022-2025 revenue and GEO [gold-equivalent oz.] void and was our top takeout candidate when we initiated on Elemental.”
Shares of Elemental Royalties in mid-morning trading in Toronto on December 20 were up 21% or C$0.27 per share at C$1.57 apiece.
(This article first appeared in The Northern Miner)
