This time last year, shares of Bionano Genomics (BNGO) were in the midst of one almighty tear, as the market seized upon the opportunity of its optical genome mapping (OGM) system Saphyr to disrupt the cytogenetics space.
A repeat of the rally is highly unlikely – shares went all the way from $0.5 in December 2020 to $14.54 in mid-Feb 2021 – but nevertheless the company has been making steady progress since.
In fact, over the past week, Bionano had several pieces of good news.
First off, the company announced interim results from the ongoing multi-site, double-blinded study for post-natal/pediatric samples. The study hopes to establish OGM as part of standard of care (SOC) in the diagnosis of genetic disease for postnatal patients. OGM showed a 97.7% overall concordance with SOC assays including karyotype, FISH, and/or CMA (214/219 sample runs). There was also a concordance with SOC for pathogenic variant calls of 100% [219 out of 219 samples].
Oppenheimer’s Kevin DeGeeter views the interim data as a “significant de-risking event for US reimbursement.” The next interim update will see data from more patient samples (>500) included while commercial feasibility endpoints will also be featured. So will extra case studydata assessing OGM’s aptitude in the detection of SVs.
Later in the week, the company also provided positive preliminary 4Q21 results. Bionano now has an installed based of 164 Saphyr systems, following 23 net placements in the quarter. DeGeeter had expected just 15. In total, 4Q21 revenue is anticipated in the $5.8–6.2 million range. DeGeeter’s estimate is at the low end, at $5.8 million, although above consensus, which called for $5.4 million. The analyst sees possible upside from consumables revenue. Revenue for full-year 2021 is expected to come in between $17.5–17.9 million.
The company hasn’t provided guidance for 2022, but the analyst considers the Street’s forecast of $29.3 million as “potentially aggressive.” DeGeeter’s forecast calls for $26 million.
The analyst sees several trends supporting 2022’s outlook. These include: “1) 4Q21 growth in Saphyr placements; 2) consumables from high-volume labs following multiple LDTs validated 2H21; and 3) full year of BioDiscovery revenue contributing ~$4.0M.”
DeGeeter might think the Street’s outlook is optimistic, but his outlook for the stock is extremely bullish. The 5-star analyst rates BNGO an Outperform (i.e., Buy) and his $14 price target implies share appreciation of a huge 451%. (To watch DeGeeter’s track record, click here)
Only two other analysts have posted reviews over the past 3 months, but they are almost as effusive, providing the stock with a Strong Buy consensus rating and a $12 price target. (See Bionano stock forecast on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
