This article is an excerpt from Barron’s 10 favorite stocks for 2022. To see the full list, click here.
Nordstrom looks like a cheap play on high-end retailing. At about $20, the stock trades for about 10 times projected 2022 earnings and for just 50% of sales, based on its enterprise value (market value plus net debt), a discount to nearly all of its peers.
Evercore analyst Omar Saad is among the few Wall Street bulls on Nordstrom (ticker: JWN). He sees a favorable risk/reward. He projects $2.20 in 2022 earnings and says the stock could hold at about $20, even if profits fall to $1.50. In a bullish scenario in which margins and sales outpace expectations, Nordstrom could earn $4 a share and the stock could top its high of $46 in March.
The company gets 40% of its sales online and has rationalized its physical footprint to about 100 full-service stores, while using small neighborhood stores in urban areas for online pickups, returns, and alterations.
Given its family control, Nordstrom is apt to resist any attempt by activist investors to spin off its online business along the lines of what Macy’s
(M) and Kohl’s
(KSS) are facing.
Still, a deal for the company isn’t out of question, given a digestible market value of little more than $3 billion.
Barron’s Stock Picks for 2022
We have identified these 10 as among the best candidates to outperform the market next year.
| Company / Ticker | Recent Price | YTD Change | 2021E EPS | 2022E EPS | 2022E P/E | Dividend Yield | Market Value (bil) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com / AMZN | $3,377.42 | 4% | $41.11 | $51.37 | 65.7 | None | $1,713 |
| AT&T / T | 23.71 | -18 | 3.38 | 3.17 | 7.5 | 8.8% | 169 |
| Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A | 454,550.00 | 31 | 17,466.30 | 18,928.50 | 24.0 | None | 673 |
| General Motors / GM | 58.39 | 40 | 6.73 | 6.93 | 8.4 | None | 85 |
| Hertz Global Holdings / HTZ | 21.01 | -22* | 4.02 | 2.55 | 8.2 | None | 10 |
| IBM / IBM | 125.93 | 5 | 10.05 | 11.04 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 113 |
| Johnson & Johnson / JNJ | 173.01 | 10 | 9.83 | 10.38 | 16.7 | 2.5 | 455 |
| Nordstrom / JWN** | 20.05 | -36 | 1.27 | 1.99 | 10.1 | None | 3 |
| Royal Dutch Shell / RDS.B | 42.82 | 27 | 4.86 | 6.19 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 166 |
| Visa / V*** | 214.37 | -2 | 5.91A | 7.04 | 30.5 | 0.7 | 467 |
*Since July 1. **Estimates for Jan. 2022 and Jan. 2023 fiscal year ends. ***Sept. fiscal year end. E=estimate. A=actual.
Source: FactSet
Write to Andrew Bary at [email protected]
