Russia is risking all-out war to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO

Russia’s dealings — or, more accurately, its clashes — with the West have centered on one country which has been a particular flashpoint for confrontations in recent years: Ukraine.

It’s back in focus this week with a series of high-stakes meetings taking place between Russian and western officials which are centered on trying to diffuse heightened tensions between Russia and its neighbor.

A particular issue right now is whether Ukraine — something of a frontier country between Russia and the rest of Europe, and one which aspires to join the EU — could one day become a member of the western military alliance NATO.

This is a possibility Russia vehemently opposes.

As the Russia Council prepares to meet NATO officials in Brussels on Wednesday, CNBC has a guide to why Russia cares so much about Ukraine and how far it might be willing to go to stop Ukraine from joining the alliance.

Relations between the European neighbors hit a low in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine, and it has supported a pro-Russian uprising in the east of the country where low-level fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian troops has continued ever since.

Tensions have ratcheted up even further in recent months, however, amid multiple reports of Russian troops massing at the border with Ukraine, prompting widespread speculation that Russia was preparing to invade the country.

Russia has denied it is planning to do so repeatedly and the U.S., EU and NATO has warned Russia that it will, as President Joe Biden told President Vladimir Putin during a phone call on Dec. 30, “respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine.”

Quite how far the West would go to defend Ukraine is a big question, however.

Last month, Russia set out several main demands to the West when it comes to Ukraine, among other security matters, in a draft security pact.

Within this, it demanded that the U.S. must prevent further eastward expansion of NATO and must not allow former Soviet states to join the alliance.

In the draft pact, Russia also demanded that the U.S. “shall not establish military bases” in the territories of any former Soviet states that are not already members of NATO, or “use their infrastructure for any military activities or develop bilateral military cooperation with them.”

Although not mentioned by name in the draft pact, Ukraine is an obvious target for the Russians; Ukraine is a former Soviet republic, as is Russia-ally Belarus, Azerbaijan, Moldova and Armenia, among others. The former Soviet states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are already NATO members.

Russia has already, and often, expressed its dislike of U.S. missile defense complexes in Poland and Romania in Eastern Europe and the bolstering of NATO’s presence, in terms of “combat-ready battlegroups,” as NATO describes them, in the Baltic states and Poland.

For its part, the U.S. and NATO have already said that demands that Ukraine not be admitted to NATO, or that it rolls back NATO deployments in eastern Europe are “non-starters” in the words of U.S. Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman who led the U.S. delegation in talks with Russian officials in Geneva on Monday.

While she noted that the U.S. had pushed back against Russia’s security proposals, her Russian counterpart Sergei Ryabkov said the talks, which lasted around seven hours, were “difficult” and signaled that Moscow’s demands had not changed, telling reporters “it’s absolutely mandatory to make sure that Ukraine never — never ever — becomes a member of NATO.”

With no clear progress being made in talks on Monday, hopes are being pinned on further discussions between Russian and NATO officials in Brussels on Wednesday, and more discussions on Thursday at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Vienna.

Putin has made no bones about the fact he thinks the break-up of the Soviet Union was a catastrophe for Russia, describing it as the “greatest geopolitical tragedy” of the 20^th century.

Ukraine has a particular importance for Russia given its location — it stands as a bulwark between Russia and the eastern EU states — as well as a symbolic and historical importance for Russia, often being seen as a “jewel in the crown” of the former Soviet empire.

Putin has extolled the cultural, linguistic and economic ties Ukraine has with Russia, describing Russians and Ukrainians as being “one people” last year. He even wrote an essay on the subject, entitled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.“

The sentiment is not requited ubiquitously in Ukraine, with the country’s government under President Volodymyr Zelensky, looking westward for economic aid and geopolitical strength, particularly in the years following Russian’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Ukraine has repeatedly expressed its desire to join the EU and NATO, which represents a geopolitical kick in the teeth for a resurgent Russia vying to maintain power and influence in the region.

Many strategists and close followers of Russian politics believe Putin, who has been in power alternating between prime minister and president since late 1999, harbors a strong desire to invade Ukraine.

Maximilian Hess, fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC Tuesday that “Russia is not just seeking to prohibit Ukraine from joining the alliance — something it has sought to do since Ukraine’s 2008 NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) application — but also to remove Ukraine from the Western sphere of influence to which it has moved since the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution.”

“NATO membership is particularly symbolic, but Russia would not accept a situation in which the West significantly expanded military support to Ukraine either.”

One of the biggest questions facing western officials is just how far Russia is willing to go to stop Ukraine’s drift toward Europe and the West and to enhance and extend its presence and influence in the country as it stands.

At talks on Monday, Russia’s delegation insisted that there were no plans to invade Ukraine but analysts aren’t so sure.

Angela Stent, director emerita of Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies told CNBC Tuesday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could still happen. “Let’s say, 50-50 at the moment,” she said, adding that it could be a “more limited invasion” rather than a massive one.

“That danger still lies there,” she said.

Maximilian Hess agreed, noting that “I do think Russia is prepared to go to war, but I do not think the Kremlin would desire a war far beyond the current fronts. The risks of encountering a sustained Guerilla resistance would be very high, particularly if they went beyond Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” he said.

Russia does need a “credible invasion threat” to remain, however, especially as it’s what played the key role in bringing the U.S. to the table, Hess added.

“The risk of renewed or expanded Russian invasion — Ukraine of course already faces an ongoing Russian invasion of Crimea and proxy occupation of parts of Donetsk and Luhansk — has never fully receded these past 8 years and is unlikely to after these talks as maintaining the ability to restrict Ukraine’s potential success is still seen as key to the long term self preservation of the Kremlin,” he commented.

Meanwhile Tony Brenton, a former British ambassador to Russia, told CNBC Tuesday that both Russia and the U.S. want to avoid a military confrontation and that Moscow just wants what it sees as its interests “accommodated.”