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Forget About Inflation. Contrarians Expect a Recession and a Drop in Bond Yields.
“Something that everyone knows isn’t worth knowing,” as the famed financier Bernard Baruch once observed.
And so I was reminded by a long discourse in the New York Times this past week on why bond yields remain low, despite rising inflation and large budget deficits. Central banks around the globe have pinned rates at zero or below while buying trillions of dollars’ worth of bonds to lower their yields. Aging demographics and ongoing demand for safe, liquid investments, along with a global savings surfeit, have further lowered…