Natural gas futures are trading sharply highly in a thinly traded U.S. holiday market amid the onset of extremely cold temperatures in key demand areas in the U.S., worries about tight U.S. supplies and a bullish outlook for global liquefied natural gas (LNG).
At 13:56 GMT, April natural gas futures are trading $4.705, up $0.328 or +7.49%.
‘Polar Plunge’ to Hit Most of US
After a mild end to the weekend for many states, Old Man Winter will make a comeback as we start off the new workweek, CNN reported.
“Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over the northern tier states by Monday morning,” the Weather Prediction Center said Saturday.
And that’s just the beginning. The thermometer will slip to 30 to 40 degrees below normal by Tuesday and Wednesday, as a strong high pressure system begins to spread Arctic air farther south and east, CNN wrote.
Over the next week more than 70% of Americans in the Lower 48 will experience temperatures below the freezing mark. More than 15 million will endure temperatures below zero.
US Gas Stocks Need Big Rebuild Ahead of Next Winter – John Kemp
U.S. gas inventories have depleted faster-than-average this winter despite warmer-than-normal temperatures, as strong demand in Europe and Asia has boosted exports of liquefied natural gas, tightening the market.
Working stocks in underground storage have fallen by 1,703 billion cubic feet since the start of November, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The depletion rate has been the fastest since the winter of 2017/18 and is significantly above the pre-pandemic five-year average of 1,485 billion cubic feet (“Weekly natural gas storage report,” EIA, February 17).
Inventories are now 289 billion cubic feet (13%) below the pre-pandemic seasonal average, compared with 103 billion cubic feet (3%) below the average at the start of November.
LNG Market Supply-Demand Balance to Remain Tight in 2022, Says Shell
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is expected to remain tight this year following last year’s volatility which saw demand rise 6% and gas prices hit an all-time high, Shell said on Monday.
“The high prices we’re seeing at the moment are being driven by fundamentals, low storage levels and supply uncertainty,” said Steve Hill, executive vice president, energy marketing.
He added that the lack of new supply and the reduction of investment in LNG are other reasons behind the tight market.
Short-Term Outlook
The main trend is up. Monday’s trade through $4.645 signaled a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $3.867 will change the main trend to down.
The short-term range is $5.053 to $3.867. April natural gas is currently trading on the bullish side of its retracement zone at $4.600 to $4.460, making it support.
Continue to look for a strong upside bias as long as the market holds above $4.460. A failure to hold this level will be a sign of weakness. It won’t change the main trend to down, but it could lead to a test of the main retracement zone at $4.218 to $4.021.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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