Investors might have been disappointed with Novavax’s (NVAX) latest quarterly results, but Jefferies analyst Roger Song thinks a “transformational year” could be in the cards for the vaccine maker.
“While next few Q’s commercial/regulatory/clinical execution remains key, we could start to see big promise coming to fruition,” the analyst opined following the Q4’s print.
That is despite misses on both the top-and bottom-line. Revenue declined 20.5% year-over-year to $222.2 million, falling $109.59 million short of the consensus estimate. And net losses widened significantly – by 377% yoy to $846.3 million. That led to non-GAAP EPS coming at -$11.18 and amounting to a $9.38 miss.
However, the company provided its first-ever sales guidance, expecting between $4 billion and $5 billion in 2022. While at the mid-point, the figure is slightly below consensus expectations of $4.7 billion, Song thinks it is not only achievable but “conservative, with upside potential.”
The company also said there could be upside to the current revenue guidance, with US EUA approval likely. Additionally, a BLA is planned for 2H22.
Novavax will also shortly file EUAs for the vaccine’s use in pediatrics across the globe and booster shots (anticipated in 2Q22, ex-US) and “seek health policy recommendations.” To support the US filing, the company intends to move forward with a Phase 3 booster study in 2Q22.
“Importantly,” says Song, “Ex-US health policy agencies appear to be amenable to recommending booster with limited immunogenicity data so the company plans to aggressively pursue policy recommendations with current data.”
Song also thinks there’s an “underappreciated” opportunity in Novavax’s flu/CV19 combo vaccine, which could be a “big differentiator in the future market, particularly as CV19 evolves into an endemic disease.” Data from the Phase 1/2 study of the flu/CV19 vaccine combo is anticipated in April.
All in all, Song sticks to a Buy rating, while his $198 price target implies shares will climb ~130% over the coming months. (To watch Song’s track record, click here)
5 other analysts have been tracking Novavax’ progress over the past 3 months, and barring one skeptic, all are positive, culminating in a Strong Buy consensus rating. There are plenty of gains projected too; at $210.5, the average target suggests the shares will yield returns of ~149% over the one-year timeframe. (See Novavax stock forecast on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
