The 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve on Monday morning briefly inverted for the first time since early April, a closely monitored measure that is seen by many as an indicator of a recession.
The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields briefly dipped to as low as minus 0.02 basis points on Monday. It comes after Friday’s hotter-than-expected inflation reading stoked concerns about an aggressive rate hiking strategy by the Federal Reserve.
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The 2-year rate was last seen up more than 15 basis points at 3.1994%, while the benchmark 10-year rate traded roughly 8 basis points higher at 3.2364%. Yields move opposite to prices, and a basis point is equal to 0.01%.
Short-term rates have moved more in the last few days because of their higher sensitivity to Federal Reserve rate hikes, flattening the widely watched yield curve.
A highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting comes this week, with the central bank expected to announce at least a half-point rate hike on Wednesday. The Fed has already raised rates twice this year, including a 50-basis-point (0.5 percentage point) increase in May in an effort to stave off the recent inflation surge.
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Last week, the U.S. consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, rose by 8.6% in May on a year-over-year basis, its fastest increase since 1981, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a gain of 8.3%. The so-called core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 6%.
Meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading fell to a record low, appearing to accelerate the selling in bonds at the end of last week.
There are no major economic data releases due Monday.
— CNBC’s Jesse Pound contributed to this report.
