Our survival is at stake if our food system doesn’t change

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By Evan Fraser and Lenore Newman

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The war in Europe is preventing Russia and Ukraine from exporting much wheat, precipitating a global food crisis that is making everyone worse off. In addition, rising demand, coupled with trade sanctions, has caused a surge in fertilizer prices that has tripled the cost of some farm inputs in recent months. Together, these factors mean food is expensive and the number of hungry people on the planet is rocketing. Policymakers warn we face a global food shortage.

However, the crisis in Ukraine is only one of a series of threats facing the world’s food systems. Food prices were high before the war. Climate change regularly destroys harvests, especially in key regions such as the southwestern United States, the source of most of North America’s fruits and vegetables. And food supplies are dwindling. The United Nations keeps track of the “supply-to-use” ratio, which is a measure of how much food we use compared with how much we produce. This ratio has been declining for years, and the world now has less food, expressed as a percentage of the food we use, than at any point since 2015.

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In Canada, the food crisis means higher grocery bills, forcing families to skimp on healthy but expensive fruits and vegetables, while also triggering an unprecedented demand for food banks. In the Middle East, which is extremely dependent on wheat imports from Russia and the Ukraine, policymakers are scared high prices may trigger civil unrest.

It is naive to think we can rely on a food system built for a different era

The long-term outlook is even bleaker. In the aftermath of the Second World War, we took advantage of advances in production and transportation to design a system that delivers cheap food year-round in an “endless summer” of abundance. This global food system depends on three basic assumptions: seamless trade and stable geopolitics to allow food to move easily from where it is produced to where it is consumed; cheap energy to produce nitrogen fertilizer, power irrigation systems, fuel tractors and harvesting equipment, and keep the food trucks and refrigerators running; and a productive environment, including abundant water, fertile soils, and a moderate climate.

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When geopolitics are stable, energy is cheap, and the environment is productive, the global food system is incredibly efficient. In the late 20th century, it was possible to build a food system on these assumptions. Today, none of these assumptions are being met. High and volatile energy prices, the challenge of an unpredictable climate, and a fractured world order that is suspicious and atavistic are the name of the new game. It is naive to think we can rely on a food system built for a different era.

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Technological innovation can help. Vertical farming can be done in enclosed spaces that ensure fruit and vegetables are both environmentally sustainable and available year-round. New “cell-based” farms can produce high-quality proteins and nutrients in urban areas. Meanwhile, technologies such as smart tractors allow farmers to increase yields while simultaneously reducing environmental impact in traditional farming regions.

In the future farmers are as likely to wear a lab coat as to drive a tractor

Deploying these technologies will take work. Governments can help by investing in research and development, implementing carbon pricing, and incentivizing farming to adopt environmentally sustainable practices. Businesses need to collaborate by sharing data, developing systems to track carbon and other environmental impacts, and voluntarily adopting best practices. Universities and colleges need to change how we teach the next generation, recognizing that in the future farmers are as likely to wear a lab coat as to drive a tractor. Consumers must also step up, and those who are able should demand change every time we go to the grocery store.

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Today, we find ourselves in a situation where our daily bread depends on political and environmental conditions that stretch far beyond our borders. The crises of the world make this a risky bet. But new technologies and production approaches mean that our rural farms can produce food sustainably, while our cities can become the home to sophisticated facilities that produce proteins, fruit, and vegetables. Ensuring these possibilities become reality will be a crucial in developing the kinds of food systems needed to withstand the challenges of the 21st century.

Evan Fraser is director of the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph and Lenore Newman is director at the Food and Agriculture Institute at the University of the Fraser Valley.