Amazon’ s (AMZN) two-day shopping extravaganza known as Prime Day generated record purchases, the company said Thursday, giving Wall Street analysts a chance to crunch the numbers and estimate the impact on Amazon’s financials for its third quarter. (Club holding Amazon is set to report second-quarter results toward the end of the month on July 28). Prime members worldwide bought more than 300 million items during Prime Day (which was on Tuesday and Wednesday), according to Amazon. Discounts are a big part of Prime Day, and Amazon said the sales helped shoppers save more than $1.7 billion over the 48-hour window. Important context to keep in mind is Prime Day this year coincided with concerns about consumer spending in the face of the hottest inflation in the U.S. since the early 1980s. In general, Friday’s analyst reaction notes we’ve seen seem relatively positive. Here’s a breakdown of four of them and our Club analysis as well. Morgan Stanley Perhaps the most bullish reaction to Prime Day, which started in 2015 as a one day shopping event and grew from there, came from analysts at Morgan Stanley. They estimate Prime Day generated total sales volume — also known as gross merchandise volume (GMV) — of $8.2 billion, translating to roughly $4.6 billion in revenues for Amazon, up 19% year-over-year. Both figures came in solidly ahead of their expectations. “Prime Day results make us incrementally more confident in the strength of the consumer,” their willingness to spend even after Covid pulled forward demand —and, as a result, Amazon’s “forward topline growth,” the analysts wrote. Morgan Stanley called attention to what Amazon has disclosed about Prime Day in previous years: 175 million items sold in 2019 and over 250 million items sold in 2021. From those figures, the analysts calculate a roughly 20% two-year compound annual growth rate for Prime Day against the backdrop of Covid accelerating e-commerce shopping. “The 300mn+ items sold during Prime Day 2022 implies ~20% growth vs last Prime Day 2021, meaning that AMZN was able to match the growth rate it generated during COVID even through reopening,” they wrote. Morgan Stanley has the equivalent of a buy rating on the stock and a $175 price target, implying about 58.5% upside from Thursday’s close at $110.40 per share. Evercore ISI Evercore analysts, led by frequent CNBC guest Mark Mahaney, have pretty similar GMV and revenue estimates as Morgan Stanley: $8.2 billion and $4.4 billion, respectively. Evercore expects that estimated $4.4 billion in Prime Day sales to account for 3% to 4% of Amazon’s companywide revenue in the third quarter. “We would describe these results as modestly better than we would have assumed but we continue to see some downside to FY22 Street estimates given the seasonality & scale of this business and a tough macro environment,” the analysts wrote. Evercore also called attention to what Amazon said were some of the best-selling product categories during Prime Day: Consumer Electronics, Home and Amazon Devices. Premium beauty brands were among the best-selling items, as were the fellow Club holding Apple ‘s (AAPL) Apple Watch Series 7 and Levi’s apparel and accessories. Evercore rates Amazon shares as outperform, with a $180 price target on the stock. Bank of America Bank of America analysts have higher Prime Day estimates for gross merchandise volume and Amazon revenue than both Evercore and Morgan Stanley. BofA estimates GMV came in at $10.7 billion and Amazon’s revenue from that to be roughly $7.5 billion. Overall, analysts wrote that Prime Day “suggests solid unit growth despite tough economic backdrop,” while also noting Prime Day sales probably “cannibalize” sales that would happen on other days. We don’t want to get too in the weeds, but it’s worth pointing out part of the variability in estimates is that Evercore and BofA use different assumptions in their models. For example, BofA estimates Amazon’s take rate for third-party sales is 30%, while Evercore believes it’s around 25%. The “take rate” is the percent that Amazon gets from each sale. “Relatively strong Prime Day results give us some confidence in Amazon meeting 3Q unit sales expectations, in what otherwise could be a tougher quarter for eCommerce industry given reopening and crowding out by gas and housing inflation. Gross margins may have added risk given inflation and retail industry inventory growth,” the BofA analysts wrote. Inflation appeared to affect what people were buying during Prime Day . The analysts cite third-party data from Numerator that estimates about 58% of orders were for products priced under $20. What’s more, Numerator found “necessities over indulgences” was a common theme across orders, noting the firm’s survey found that Frito-Lay snacks were among the most purchased items across Prime Day. Bank of America has a buy rating and $188 price target on Amazon shares. UBS Analysts at UBS acknowledged the record Prime Day product purchases, but primarily focused on the hurdles ahead for Amazon because they say that’s what investors really are focused on. UBS analysts list three primary issues for investors: What does Amazon forecast for third-quarter revenue and operating income when it reports Q2 numbers later this month? Prime Day fell within Q3 this year, but last year was in Q2. What are Amazon’s plans to improve its cost structure after incurring about $6 billion in incremental costs in Q1 and an estimated $4 billion in Q2? Will revenue growth at Amazon Web Services slowdown if the global economic outlook softens considerably? If the answer is yes, then by how much? These are all important and reasonable questions. And while UBS sees risks to Amazon’s revenue and operating income in the near term, the analysts wrote that they “think the current risk/reward looks compelling for investors with longer-term time horizons.” UBS has a buy rating and $167 price target on the stock. The Club’s take We’re very encouraged by the disclosed results from Amazon about Prime Day, but we also recognize the challenges facing Amazon in the coming months. That includes correcting some of the overexpansion issues and excessive cost issues that UBS referenced above. It’s not going to happen overnight, so it requires some patience on the part of shareholders. That said, we’re tempted to upgrade our rating on the stock to a 1 from its current 2 rating , which means we’d be buyers on a pullback. A 1 rating means we’d be buyers at its current levels. On Friday, Amazon was up more than 4% and on pace for its third straight day in the green. However, the stock has still been down considerably this year and below the levels at which we made two well-timed sales earlier this year, in March and early April . We’re interested in buying some of those back. But for now, we’re are keeping an eye on things. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long AMZN and AAPL. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. 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An Amazon employee prepares an order during a tour of the advanced robotics facility fulfillment centre, YHM1, in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada April 19, 2022.
Nick Iwanyshyn | Reuters