The central bank presented two scenarios in its monetary policy report last month, opting not to publish forecasts given the uncertain trade environment with the U.S. In the first scenario, a deal occurs and tariffs are lifted, but growth stalls in the second quarter of 2025 and then averages 1.6 per cent through the end of 2027. In the second scenario, which assumes a protracted trade war occurs, GDP contracts for four quarters averaging about -1.2 per cent.
