Is it time to buy into commodities?
Though prices of copper, corn, soybeans and lumber have slumped in the past week, the trade could have legs longer term as the economic reopening kicks into high gear, Miller Tabak’s Matt Maley told CNBC on Tuesday.
“I would be a buyer on further weakness,” the firm’s chief market strategist said on “Trading Nation,” reiterating an earlier call that commodities were entering a multiyear bull market.
Patience is key as certain parts of the trade retreat from extremely overbought levels, Maley said. He uses the relative strength index to track overbought and oversold conditions, which help gauge a given stock’s momentum.
Copper, for one, recently became “more overbought than it was back at the peak in 2011,” Maley said, calling that “representative” of other commodity prices.
“They’re still a little overbought … so, they may come down a little bit further as we go through the summer. But I think over time, they represent a great buying opportunity,” Maley said. “And … not just the commodities, but the commodity-related stocks are going to be ones that we’re going to be looking to buy on weakness as we move through the summer.”
The Federal Reserve’s approach to inflation will also drive commodity prices, Michael Bapis, managing director of Vios Advisors at Rockefeller Capital Management, said in the same “Trading Nation” interview.
“It is going to be interesting to see [if] they continue pumping money into the economy at such a rapid pace,” Bapis said ahead of the central bank’s key policy update. “That’s going to tell a lot about where commodities go and about where inflation goes.”
The recent commodity price declines have raised questions about whether inflation fears are peaking. Others point to the historic rise in consumer and producer prices as causes for continued concern.
Bapis said a slight pickup could benefit the economy in the long run.
“Remember, gradual inflation is something that’s probably positive for our economy and we haven’t had it in how many years?” he said. “As long as it’s not a rapid spike or a continued long spike, I think you’ll see a positive outlook from the Fed continuing to move forward.”
