Netflix Is Still on a Tear. Why the Stock Is Limping Into Earnings.

That’s a little surprising. Unlike Zoom, Peloton, and Chegg, Netflix is showing no signs of slowing. Third-quarter earnings included better-than-expected user growth—the company added 4.4 million net new subscribers, above its own forecast of 3.5 million. Netflix had third-quarter revenue of $7.48 billion, in line with estimates, and profits of $3.18 a share, well ahead of the Street consensus at $2.56 a share.

For the December quarter, the company is projecting 8.5 million net new subscriber additions, with revenue of $7.7 billion, up 16%. Street consensus calls for 8.3 million net adds, $7.7 billion in revenue, and profits of 83 cents a share. For the March quarter, Street estimates call for revenue of 8.2 million, profits of $3.47 a share, and 5.7 million net subscriber additions.

Just last week, Netflix ratcheted up subscription prices in the U.S. and Canada. In the U.S., a standard subscription, which includes HD-quality video and the ability to stream on two devices at the same time, is now $15.49 a month, up from $13.99. Basic service is now $9.99 a month, up from $8.99. Premium service, which allows up to four simultaneous streams, jumps to $19.99 a month, from $17.99.

In a research note Wednesday, Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall repeated his Overweight rating and $800 target on Netflix shares. He writes that an analysis of download data from the research firm Apptopia suggests the company’s new-subscriber guidance is conservative. He raised his forecast for the December-quarter net adds to 10 million from a previous 9.5 million, which already was way ahead of both guidance and consensus.

Cahall notes that the December quarter was a “monster” from a content perspective, including popular movies like Don’t Look Up and Red Notice, and ongoing interest in Squid Game.

Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion likewise repeats his Overweight rating and $705 target on the stock heading into the earnings report. Champion writes that while subscriber data could be “erratic” in the near term, he sees long-term growth above 25 million subscribers a year “for the foreseeable future.” He notes that free cash flow should be “handily positive” in 2022, and contends that “valuation looks compelling relative to the last 5 years.”

Likewise, BofA Securities analyst Nat Schindler keeps his Buy rating and $750 target on Netflix shares. “With a massive content slate lineup in 2022 and continued growth in Asia, we see opportunity for subscriber upside and potential for new subscriber models as key positive stock drivers in 2022,” Schindler wrote in a research note this week.

MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson is more cautious. In a recent research note, he predicted that fourth-quarter financial data will show that two of the newer entrants into the streaming market—Paramount+ from ViacomCBS (VIAC) and Peacock from Comcast (CMCSA)—will post the most net subscriber adds in the U.S. “In fact, looking out into 2022, we think the narrative of improving content slates at virtually every [subscription video-on-demand] platform will underscore the increasingly competitive nature and current low return profile of this business,” he writes.

For Netflix, Nathanson adds, the story from here is about growth in Asia, and eventually lower-priced mobile-first markets. “2022 should prove that no one single company has a monopoly on great content,” he writes.

He recently repeated his Neutral rating on Netflix shares while trimming his price target on the stock to $460 from $465. He thinks investors “will focus on Netflix’s relatively high valuation and the longer-term implications of hitting a subscriber ceiling in their most valuable regions of the world.”

Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected]