A Russian invasion of Ukraine could trigger sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, and there’s one Western bank particularly exposed.
According to an analysis from JPMorgan Cazeonve, Austria’s Raiffeisen RBI, +2.00% earned 35% of 2021 pretax profits from Russia.
OTP OTP, -1.17% earned 7% of profits from Russia, with Unicredit UCG, +3.61% earning 6% and Societe Generale GLE, +3.25% earning 4%, according to the JPMorgan estimates.
The analysts said an exclusion from the SWIFT bank messaging system and disallowing conversions of ruble to hard currency could drive material further downside. Although Russia has developed an alternative payment system, the initial shock to the Russian economy would be large, the analysts said.
By market share, Citi C, +1.00% is the only American bank with a sizeable presence, at 0.6% of the Russian market by assets.
Financials stocks more broadly helped European equities recover Tuesday in a choppy trading session.
The Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +1.68% rose 0.6% to 459.18, with Ericsson ERIC.B, +2.35% and Logitech LOGN, +5.99% rallying after well-received results.
Of the major regional indexes, the German DAX DAX, +2.22% gained 0.4%, the French CAC 40 PX1, +2.11% increased 0.9% and the U.K. FTSE 100 UKX, +1.33% increased 0.9%.
Orpea ORP, -20.88% shares slumped for a second day, losing 19% after a 16% slide on Monday. Le Monde published extracts from a book alleging negligent practices at nursing homes run by the company, allegations the company denies.
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