The major averages retreated on Monday as investors evaluated concerns about the Federal Reserve’s plan for interest rate hikes and tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
The S&P 500 fell 1%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 363 points, or 1% dragged down by losses in Cisco and Chevron.
Stocks recently have been reacting to any headline related to Russia-Ukraine. Oil prices were lower for most of the trading day Monday, but an afternoon run sent West Texas Intermediate futures above $94 per barrel and stocks lower. It was not immediately clear what was driving the latest action, but the Wall Street Journal did report that the U.S. would be closing the Kyiv embassy.
The Cboe Volatility Index — which is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge — rose to near its session highs in afternoon trading, hovering around 31. It was up more than 3 points, or 12.9%, on the day.
The risk-off move hit industrial stocks like Caterpillar and Boeing, each falling 1.5%. Tech giants Apple and Microsoft also fell 1%.
Still, it wasn’t all pessimistic positioning on Monday. The VanEck Russia ETF, a U.S.-traded security which invests in top Russian companies, remained in the green, along with the Russian ruble vs. the U.S. dollar. Oil stocks, which outperformed during Friday’s Ukraine-driven trading, were down on Monday.
On Monday morning, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC on Monday that the central bank needed to fight inflation more aggressively, echoing comments he made last week that pressured the stock market.
“I do think we need to front-load more of our planned removal of accommodation than we would have previously. We’ve been surprised to the upside on inflation. This is a lot of inflation,” Bullard told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a live “Squawk Box” interview.
“Our credibility is on the line here and we do have to react to the data,” he added. “However, I do think we can do it in a way that’s organized and not disruptive to markets.”
The Labor Department reported Thursday that inflation in January surged 7.5%, its biggest 12-month gain since 1982.
“My interpretation was not so much that report alone, but the last four reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the U.S. economy,” said Bullard in reference to last week’s hot CPI report.
Markets are now expecting a 50 basis point, or 0.5 percentage point, increase at the central bank’s March meeting.
Economists at Goldman Sachs also raised their Fed forecast to seven hikes for 2022, and said it sees the 10-year yield hitting 2.25% this year. The firm also lowered its 2022 S&P 500 price target to 4,900 from 5,100. That would represent just a 2.8% return from where the benchmark ended 2021. Goldman said that higher rates will crimp valuations.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield charged back above 2% following Bullard’s comments.
Investors are also grappling with a potential war between Russia and Ukraine. A phone call over the weekend between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which Biden attempted to dissuade Putin from attacking Ukraine, failed to achieve a breakthrough.
Some airlines have also halted or redirected flights to Ukraine amid the brewing crisis, while the Pentagon ordered the departure of U.S. troops in Ukraine.
Sentiment was helped following comments from Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Vladimir Putin in Moscow that suggested Russia would continue diplomatic talks with the West over Ukraine, lowering tensions a bit following a market sell-off Friday.
“While the risk of conflict in Ukraine is high, it should have limited impact on global equity markets and would likely prompt a dovish reassessment by [central bankers],” said Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan chief global market strategist.
The VanEck Russia ETF rose more than 3% on Monday after losing more than 7.5% on Friday.
“The real fear is that China backs Russia and the relationship between China and the U.S. continues to deteriorate,” said Robert Cantwell, chief investment officer at Upholdings. “How it changes the U.S. relationships with the other economic superpowers – that’s what’s really scary and would affect economic outcome.”
On Friday, the major averages declined as the White House warned that a war in Ukraine could begin “any day now” and urged Americans there to leave “immediately.” Oil prices jumped Friday, along with traditional safe havens like Treasurys.
Earnings are expected to ramp up again this week, with Nvidia, Walmart, Shopify and more scheduled to report.
