Tech Is at Risk as J.P. Morgan Lowers Estimates on 26 Stocks. Amazon, Booking and Uber Are Its Top Picks.
Google’s advertising should hold up relatively better than others, according to the analysts.
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As consumer spending slows, fuel costs rise, and chances of recession remain high, J.P. Morgan tech analysts moved to lower their financial expectations for all companies in their coverage on Wednesday.
Six analysts including Doug Anmuth highlighted companies such as Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL) among the 26 others in their note, pointing to the limited ability of tech companies to offset broader macro trends now versus the 2008 financial crisis. Although he still believes Amazon (AMZN), Booking Holding (BKNG) and Uber (UBER) are best picks even in a downturn given company-specific dynamics such as their leadership positions.
Digital accounted for 12% of total ad spending during the great financial crisis versus 67% in 2021, Anmuth explained. This leaves Meta (META), Snapchat (SNAP), Alphabet and others exposed by the reduction of advertising spending by brands.
The exposure led the analysts to lower third-quarter revenue estimates for Snapchat by 4%, 6% for the fourth quarter and 7% for 2023. Their full-year 2022 price target on the social media company is now $24 versus $26 earlier. The stock was down 0.2% to $13.71 on Wednesday.
For Google , Anmuth acknowledges that its advertising should hold up relatively better than others as its search is more resilient than social and it doesn’t have the additional pressures from Apple’s privacy changes, but any brand ad spending slowdown will still remain a drag. The analysts reduced Alphabet ’s gross revenue projection by 1% for the second quarter and 2% for the second half of the year. The firm lowered its price target on the company to $2,800 from $3,200. The stock was up 0.4% to $2,248.01 during Wednesday’s morning hours.
Anmuth reduced his revenue estimate for Meta by 6% for 2022. “ Meta has more than 10 million advertisers,” he highlighted. The price target was reduced to $225 from $275 earlier. Meta’s stock was down 2.3% to $164.39 on Wednesday.
While travel remains strong thus far in 2022, Anmuth reminded investors that overall travel spend growth historically correlates with inflation and macro headwinds, both of which could begin to weigh on travel bookings following this summer season. For all travel companies such as Airbnb (ABNB), Expedia (EXPE) and others, his 2023 revenue projections went down by 2% to 4%.
Amazon , Booking and Uber also suffered estimate reductions, but he had a few favorable pointers that make these stocks his best picks. These included Amazon’s Prime offering and head start in the cloud market, Booking’s strong management team and Uber’s leadership position in the ride-share market. He rates all three tech giants at Overweight.
Write to Karishma Vanjani at [email protected]
