Scotiabank CEO confident lender will hit earnings goals despite uncertainty

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Bank of Nova Scotia chief executive Scott Thomson says he has a “high level of confidence” that the Toronto-based lender can meet its earnings goals in the next two years despite the ongoing economic uncertainty.

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Some economists have raised concerns about the Canadian economy possibly slipping into recession next year if incoming United States president Donald Trump makes good on his threat of imposing a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports when he takes office. But Thomson expects the uncertainty to be temporary.

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“We are closely monitoring policy actions from the new administration in Mexico as well as the incoming U.S. administration,” he said during a call with analysts to discuss the bank’s fourth-quarter results on Tuesday. “While new governments often bring initial uncertainty with respect to trade policy and relations, we believe policy will ultimately support a co-operative environment.”

Scotiabank is in the process of executing a new strategy of allocating more capital in North America. The bank’s immediate focus is to allocate a greater share of capital to Canada as well as recycle capital from its Latin American businesses to its corporate business in the U.S.

It’s targeting earnings growth of five per cent to seven per cent in 2025 before moving to double digits in 2026, as it expects ongoing interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada to boost the economy and decrease the necessary provisions for credit loans, which is the amount of money banks set aside for potential bad loans.

The bank also expects its investment in KeyCorp to eventually pay off. Scotiabank in August agreed to buy 14.9 per cent of the Cleveland-based lender, which operates in 15 states, for about $3.9 billion. Thomson is hopeful the deal will be completed in the first quarter.

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“That’s a meaningful NII (net interest income) contributor,” he said. “That is a component of the double-digit growth into 2026. The five (per cent) to seven per cent (growth), to be clear, does not include any contribution from KeyCorp in the 2025 outlook.”

Scotiabank reported a higher fourth-quarter profit than last year, but missed market expectations due to a higher-than-anticipated tax rate, analysts say.

On an adjusted basis, the bank earned $2.1 billion, up 29 per cent from a year ago, resulting in earnings per share of $1.57. Analysts had expected the bank to earn $1.60 per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

“We anticipate that the headline miss will garner some concern in the market today,” Jefferies Inc. analyst John Aiken said in a note on Tuesday. “However, as the market parses through the numbers, the fact that the bulk of the disappointment centres around a higher-than-expected tax rate should garner some relief.”

Shares of Scotiabank were down a bit more than three per cent in trading Tuesday afternoon on the S&P/TSX composite index.

The bank’s reported net income for the three-month period ending Oct. 31 rose 25 per cent from the same period last year to $1.6 billion.

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Its reported earnings included impairment charges related to its investment in Bank of Xi’an Co. Ltd. in China, as well as certain software intangible assets and severance provisions.

The lender attributed the increase in its profits to higher net interest income and lower provisions for credit losses (PCLs).

Losses related to PCLs decreased by $226 million from a year ago, but the provision for impaired loans, or loans that the bank may not be able to collect on in their entirety, increased by about 30 per cent to roughly $1.03 billion, compared to $802 million last year, primarily due to “higher formations in Canadian banking retail and commercial portfolios,” the bank said.

However, chief risk officer Phil Thomas said the bank is starting to see “green shoots” in its mortgage portfolio due to falling interest rates.

“We’re actually seeing some improvement as customers come in for renewal,” he said on the conference call. “This quarter, we saw fixed-rate mortgage customers holding about six per cent more in their deposit account quarter to quarter, and (variable-rate mortgage) customers about 5.5 per cent more in their deposit account. You can start to see there are some early signs.”

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Scotiabank reported revenue of $8.5 billion, a three per cent increase from the same period last year. Its adjusted revenue was also 8.5 billion, up eight per cent from last year.

It maintained its quarterly dividend at $1.06 per share.

“While I am encouraged by our strategic progress to date, there is significant work ahead as we focus on client primacy initiatives to drive enhanced profitability across our businesses,” Thomson said in a release.

He described the bank’s results for fiscal 2024 as “solid.”

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